The meeting did not reach an agreement on the name of the coalition.
The United Opposition’s much-anticipated retreat ended in Kiambu County on Monday without resolving some of the fundamental questions threatening to derail efforts to forge a united political vehicle ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The retreat which had been scheduled for two days, August 24 and 25 however, ended after only one day’s deliberations.
The coalition dubbed; “United Alternative Government” brings together Democracy for the Citizen’s Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Jubilee Deputy Leader Dr Fred Matiang’i, People’s Liberation Party chief Martha Karua, her Democratic Party counterpart Justin Muturi, DAP-Kenya’s Eugene Wamalwa and Party of National Unity’s Peter Munya.
Although the principals meeting at Windsor Hotel signed a covenant of unity and pledged to support whoever emerges as their presidential candidate, critical details on how the coalition will operate remain unsettled.
At the heart of the disagreements are questions over who will run the coalition, how its secretariat will be constituted, how decisions will be made, how the presidential candidate will be selected and, ultimately, who will face President William Ruto in 2027.
Nation established that the meeting did not reach an agreement on rebranding of Azimio, had no consensus on the name of coalition, even though Komboa Kenya Coalition remains the most preferred vehicle for the opposition.
The leaders however, sought to project unity, signing a Personal Unity Pledge and a Coalition Unity Agreement committing them to remain together, participate in a credible process of selecting a presidential candidate and support whoever is picked.
“Kenya comes first. Unity above division. Service above power,” the principals said in their statement.
But behind the carefully choreographed show of unity, political differences continued to emerge, exposing the difficulty of converting the broad opposition alliance into a coherent political machine.
The retreat itself had been preceded by uncertainty over attendance and timing, with insiders saying former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua opted not to attend and instead sent his deputy, Cleophas Malala, to represent him.
According to sources familiar with the developments, Mr Gachagua was unhappy with former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s remarks at the late Vice-President Michael Wamalwa’s anniversary, where Mr Kenyatta mentioned Mr Musyoka, Dr Matiang’i and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna among opposition politicians considered capable of challenging Dr Ruto.
Mr Gachagua, the sources said, was concerned that despite his increasingly prominent role in the opposition alliance, he was not mentioned among the potential presidential contenders.
The development added another layer to the already delicate relationship between Mr Gachagua and Mr Kenyatta, whose political influence remains a major factor in opposition calculations.
There were also questions about Mr Musyoka’s attendance. Insiders claimed the Wiper leader arrived at the retreat at the last minute, despite his party's earlier position that the meeting was not scheduled until October.
Wiper vice-chairperson Mutula Kilonzo Jnr had previously said there was no firm date for the meeting and indicated that the retreat would be held in October.
“No set date yet but it is in October,” Mr Kilonzo had said, adding that dates were tentative and subject to the concurrence of constituent parties.
The conflicting positions underscored the fragile nature of the coalition arrangements and raised questions about whether the principals were genuinely working from the same political script.
The meeting was itself a rescheduled affair after an earlier retreat failed to take place amid what insiders described as “competing interests”.
The principals had previously met at the Tamarind Hotel in Nairobi and agreed to establish a secretariat, with each participating party expected to second two representatives.
The arrangement was intended to give the opposition a permanent administrative structure capable of coordinating activities instead of relying on ad hoc meetings of party leaders.
Yet, even with the Windsor meeting, the structure remains a work in progress.
“There is still no fully operational secretariat. There is no agreed method for choosing a presidential candidate as the principals are yet to discuss a technical report presented to them early this year,” an opposition insider said.
The absence of agreement on the presidential nomination process is particularly significant because virtually all the principals have political ambitions or supporters who believe they are best placed to challenge Dr Ruto.
Before he flew to the United States on Wednesday night, Mr Gachagua questioned the political strength of some of the principals whom he claimed were pushing for a hurried nomination of the opposition candidate.
“We shall have a discussion on the flag bearer sometimes after Christmas. You cannot push for a candidate now when you don’t even have numbers and has not done any mobilization,” Mr Gachagua said.
Democratic Party Leader Justin Muturi has been vocal on the urgent need for the United Opposition to have a candidate, even stating that he was ready to support Mr Musyoka should he fail to secure the ticket.
On Wednesday, Mr Gachagua quipped: “The real job, and that's what I expect of my colleagues in the United Opposition to do, is political mobilisation against Ruto, it's to persuade Kenyans to register as voters, come out and vote him out and vote in a responsible government."
Mr Musyoka has positioned himself as an experienced national politician with a long record in politics. Dr Matiang’i has attracted support among sections of the opposition, while Mr Gachagua has increasingly sought to consolidate his influence in Mt Kenya and present himself as a formidable national contender.
Ms Karua and Mr Wamalwa also remain influential figures in the opposition equation, while Mr Sifuna's growing national profile has introduced another variable into the succession debate.
The coalition's leaders have nevertheless attempted to push the presidential question into the future, arguing that their immediate task is to establish unity and agree on a credible process.
"Choosing a single presidential candidate is the easiest of all the challenges that we have ahead of us. We can meet one day for lunch and before dinner we have a candidate," Mr Gachagua stated.
Ms Karua, one of the coalition's co-convenors, has previously said no decision had been made on the criteria, process or timetable for choosing the flag bearer.
Mr Musyoka had previously suggested that a candidate be nominated by March this year, and sometimes even maintaining that Mr Gachagua had settled on him as the best bet.
“Whether it is a retreat or any other forum, the objective is to make sure we agree on the best candidate. United Alternative Government is committed to producing one candidate to face President Ruto,” Wiper spokesperson Ndegwa Njiru told Nation.
He dismissed suggestions of a political pact between Wiper and Mr Gachagua, saying the two sides only shared common political values.
“The only deal is that of friendship and common purpose brought about by shared values to better this country and ensure it attains good governance,” Mr Njiru said.
But the coalition's challenges extend beyond the question of the flag bearer.
The leaders, insiders say, must agree on who will make decisions, whether decisions will be made by consensus or majority vote, who will control the secretariat and how disputes between constituent parties and the flag bearer selection formular will be resolved.
These questions are increasingly important as more political parties and movements seek to associate with the opposition.
The emerging Linda Mwananchi movement associated with Mr Sifuna has also complicated the opposition landscape.
For the coalition to work, its leaders will have to create institutions capable of balancing the competing interests of its principals.
The proposed secretariat could become the centre of this arrangement, coordinating communication, policy development, mobilisation, joint events and eventually the presidential nomination process.
It would also need to address the question of financing and ensure that no single party or politician is seen to control the coalition.
This is particularly sensitive because President Ruto and his allies have repeatedly portrayed the opposition as a loose collection of politicians united primarily by their desire to remove him from power.
The President has also accused Mr Kenyatta of financing and influencing sections of the opposition, allegations rejected by the former president and opposition leaders.
The opposition's inability to resolve its internal disputes, observers say, risks giving credence to the government's portrayal of the alliance as an unstable arrangement.
The tensions have also been heightened by the growing influence of Mr Gachagua and his DCP party.
DCP has sought to establish itself as a major political vehicle in Mt Kenya, while other politicians from the region are developing alternative formations.
The launch of the People's Party of Kenya by Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro after his departure from President Ruto's UDA exposed these competing ambitions.
Rather than automatically strengthening the opposition, Mr Nyoro's move has triggered a debate over which political vehicle should command the Mt Kenya vote.
DCP allies, including Nyandarua Senator John Methu, have criticised PPK, describing it as a “green wheelbarrow” and warning against efforts to dilute DCP's influence.
The disagreement illustrates the broader challenge facing the United Opposition: its constituent parties want to defeat Dr Ruto, but they also want to retain their individual political identities and bargaining power.
At the moment, the Windsor retreat has produced a declaration of unity but not necessarily the institutional framework required to sustain it.
But the most difficult test, according to opposition strategists will come when the process moves from general declarations of unity to the distribution of power.
Who becomes the coalition's face? Who controls its machinery? Which party gets what share of the secretariat? What happens when principals disagree? And, most importantly, which of the several ambitious leaders will ultimately be asked to surrender his or her presidential ambitions to another?
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