Tinubu’s reforms need time to deliver, 2nd term will consolidate gains — Aguda

***Oluwole Aguda is a businessman, consultant on electoral mat- ters and political affairs, and a former governorship aspirant in Kogi State, under the African Action Con- gress (AAC) in 2019. In this interview, he examines President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda, the steps the President must take to secure electoral support in the North ahead of the 2027 general election, and the political implications of the lingering face-off between Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma and his predecessor, Senator Rochas Okoro- cha, over the Imo West senatorial ticket. ***

Excerpts:

Given the hardship caused by fuel subsidy removal, naira devaluation and other economic policies, what tangible improvements in Nigerians’ living conditions can President Tinubu point to as justification for seeking a second term?

A fair assessment requires us to examine the immediate challenges confronting the economy and the long-term benefits expected from the reforms. Nigeria’s economy was bleeding, and stopping that haemorrhage was necessary to give the country a chance of recovery.

Ending fuel subsidy addressed an avenue for corruption and the unsustainable drain on public resources. NELFUND had disbursed over N300 billion to over 1.5m students across 319 tertiary institutions as at October 2026.

However, I would not suggest that these developments have largely translated into improved living conditions for most Nigerians. That remains the administration’s biggest challenge. The cost of food, transportation, housing, healthcare and other essentials continues to put enormous pressure on households.

Economic recovery must ultimately be measured by whether people can afford necessities, businesses can employ more workers and incomes can support a reasonable standard of living. The President’s case for another term should not rest solely on the courage to introduce reforms. It must also depend on translating them into better purchasing power, employment, productivity and social welfare. Reforms require time, but Nigerians enduring difficult adjustments must see a credible pathway to relief.

How would you assess the Tinubu administration’s performance, and what justifies giving it another four years?

There is intention coupled with execution across different sectoral interventions. While execution has been a challenge, progressive steps have been made. Investment in our military is important to sustaining a motivated Army, Navy and Air Force in the war against terrorism. The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway also promises to reduce travel time and transportation costs between the South-West and South-South.

One foundational challenge to national growth has been the lack of continuity in government policies, including those that could have delivered long-term benefits if sustained. Policy reversals have been the bane of our collective development. Any purposeful course must be entrenched long enough for its benefits to have an impact. Calls to restore fuel subsidy must be weighed against the implications for public finances and the country’s ability to fund infrastructure and social services. Are we going to reverse foreign exchange unification and return to the wasteful, corruption-ridden defence of the naira? How can we free resources for development and generations yet unborn? Having endured this much, Nigeria should not abandon necessary reforms without carefully evaluating their outcomes. I concede that the pace and distribution of benefits may not satisfy Nigerians, but the overall direction is not without merit.

Undertaking progressive reforms despite resistance and a decades-long preference for the path of least resistance represents a rare leadership opportunity.

A second term could consolidate the reforms and improve implementation. State police could strengthen security man- agement; naira stability could attract foreign investment, while improved oil exploration and production should raise output. The administration must demonstrate measurable progress in these areas.

How does the President address allegations that federal appointments have disproportionately favoured his Yoruba kinsmen and political associates at the expense of the constitutional principle of federal character?

Allegations of ethnic favouritism should not be dismissed, but neither should they be accepted without ev- idence. Federal appointments across ministries, departments, agencies and public institutions should be examined to establish whether they comply with the constitutional principle of federal character. Section 14(3) of the 1999 Constitution provides for government composition and public affairs to reflect Nigeria’s federal character and prevent the predominance of persons from a few states or ethnic groups. Every administration has an obligation to respect this safeguard for national inclusion.

I believe Nigeria has highly competent people across all ethnic groups and regions. Attending a unity college reinforced my conviction that intelligence and capacity are not exclusive to any group. Appointments to sensitive national positions must go beyond rewarding political loyalty or personal relationships. Associates may be qualified, but the government must demonstrate regard for competence, geographical balance and inclusion.

Appointment records should be as- sessed objectively, while the Federal Character Commission must monitor compliance and publish its findings. Nigerians must see fairness reflected in government.

What concrete achievements can Tinubu present to northern voters amid continuing concerns about insecurity, economic hardship and political representation?

Northern Nigerians, like citizens elsewhere, have the right to decide where to place their political support. Insecurity remains serious, particularly in communities affected by banditry, kidnapping, terrorism and displacement. These problems disrupt farming, trade, education and other economic activities. There are efforts to improve security and infrastructure. The Kaduna-Zaria-Kano dual carriage-way is nearing completion, the Soko-to-Badagry Superhighway is under construction, and other roads across northern Nigeria are receiving attention. Northern states also have more resources for capital projects than in previous years.

But the President must go beyond presenting road projects and increased allocations as evidence of performance. People in the North want to know whether farmers can return safely to their farms, children can attend school without fear of abduction, displaced families can return home and young people can find employment. The administration must show how its reforms benefit northern farmers, traders and small businesses.

Voters will judge the President by improvements in security, opportunity and quality of life.

Are defections into the APC and de- velopments within opposition parties part of a deliberate strategy to weaken the opposition and consolidate one-party dominance?

The ruling party has attracted politically significant defectors because its leaders have created an environment that makes it attractive to politicians. That does not necessarily mean those joining share its ideals or are committed to a common manifesto. In my opinion, political survival is a major motivation.

Politicians gravitate towards what they perceive as political certainty rather than remain in an uncertain environment. How the President’s team translates that into electoral advantage is up to them. Every party has a responsibility to protect its interests, defend its base and seek new territory. If government machinery or unfair practices are not responsible for weakening opposition par- ties, political realignments and defec- tions are normal features of democratic competition.

However, the growing concentration of political influence in one party reminds us of the importance of a credible opposition. Democracy is strengthened when parties compete on ideas, programmes and performance, not when opposition parties are weakened through abuse of state power.

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