Nigeria is caught in a poverty trap that is asphyxiating the majority of its citizens. Therefore, the country’s most urgent political contest should not merely be about who occupies Aso Rock in 2027, but about who can present the most credible and measurable plan to rescue millions of Nigerians from poverty.
The World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update reveals that, despite improvements in macroeconomic stability, household incomes have yet to recover fully and poverty remains high. The bank projects that about 62 per cent of Nigerians — roughly 141 million people — will live in poverty in 2026.
This is the uncomfortable reality behind the economic statistics. Nigeria may be recording growth, stronger external balances and improving fiscal conditions, but millions of citizens are yet to experience that progress in their homes, markets and workplaces.
Nigeria’s predicament is particularly painful because the country is not poor in resources. It is poor in productivity, opportunity and the ability to convert its vast human and natural resources into broad-based prosperity.
That is why the experiences of India and China deserve serious attention.
India offers a practical example of what sustained economic expansion, human-capital investment and strategic welfare programmes can achieve.
According to the United Nations Development Programme, about 415 million Indians escaped multidimensional poverty between 2005 and 2021, a period of roughly 15 years. India’s multidimensional poverty rate fell dramatically from 53.8 per cent in 2005-06 to 16.4 per cent in 2019-21, and further to 15.5 per cent in 2022-23, according to figures based on the World Bank’s poverty assessment.
India did not achieve this through a single magic policy. It combined economic growth with massive investments in infrastructure, electricity, roads, sanitation, financial inclusion, digital public services, education and healthcare, alongside targeted social programmes. Successive governments, including the administrations of Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, built on reforms that expanded markets and employment while using technology and direct transfers to reach poorer households.
China’s record is even more dramatic. Since launching economic reforms in 1978, China has lifted nearly 800 million people out of poverty, accounting for more than three-quarters of global poverty reduction over the period, according to the World Bank.
China’s transformation took about four decades, but its final assault on extreme rural poverty was particularly striking. Between 2013 and 2020, about 98.99 million rural residents were lifted out of poverty, according to official Chinese figures.
China achieved this through sustained industrialisation and export-led growth, massive investment in infrastructure, improved agricultural productivity, the movement of millions of people into more productive employment, and the extension of roads, electricity and other infrastructure into poor rural communities. It also deployed targeted poverty-alleviation programmes aimed at specific households and localities.
China’s experience demonstrates that poverty reduction requires a sustained national development project, not intermittent political slogans and handouts dressed up as empowerment programmes.
Nigeria’s poverty crisis has several causes: weak job creation, low productivity, insecurity, poor infrastructure, inadequate electricity, inflation, low human-capital investment, limited access to finance and decades of insufficient economic diversification.
Government revenue is also far too low for the scale of the challenge. The World Bank has repeatedly highlighted Nigeria’s unusually low revenue-to-GDP ratio, which constrains investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure and social protection. The propensity for budget and contract fraud, as well as expensive white-elephant projects that do little to improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians, has compounded the problem.
Inflation makes matters worse. For poor households, rising costs of food, education, transport, energy and accommodation are not economic statistics. They determine whether children eat adequately, remain in school or receive medical attention.
The answer, therefore, cannot be another round of political promises.
Nigeria needs a comprehensive poverty-reduction strategy built around productive jobs. Agriculture must become commercially viable. Manufacturing must have reliable power and infrastructure. Small businesses must gain access to affordable finance. Vocational education must be aligned with industry, while schools must produce skills rather than merely certificates. Social protection must be targeted, transparent and capable of cushioning vulnerable households during periods of economic adjustment.
Most importantly, government must create an environment in which private investment can flourish and businesses can create jobs on a large scale.
But none of this will gain sufficient traction without the commitment of Nigeria’s political class.
As 2027 approaches, politicians will once again travel across the country, addressing rallies and seeking to convince voters to entrust them with political power. But what is the point of capturing power if the number of poor Nigerians continues to rise?
The next presidential contest should therefore be judged less by the size of campaign rallies and more by the credibility of each candidate’s poverty-reduction strategy.
Nigerian voters should demand specifics. How many Nigerians will each candidate lift out of poverty? Within what timeframe? How many productive jobs will be created? What sectors will drive the growth? How will the programmes be funded? And what measurable targets will citizens use to hold the next government accountable?
China lifted nearly 800 million people out of poverty over four decades. India lifted 415 million people out of multidimensional poverty in roughly 15 years.
Nigeria must now begin the same fight.
Our leaders have spent decades perfecting the art of capturing political power. It is time for them to master the art of using that power to save millions of citizens from the trap of abject poverty.
The experiences of India and China demonstrate that large-scale poverty reduction is possible when there is sustained leadership commitment, sound economic policy, investment in human capital and infrastructure, and cooperation between government and the private sector.
As a newspaper, we believe the time has come to make the fight against poverty Nigeria’s foremost national project. We cannot continue to postpone the responsibility or pass the burden to another generation.
The next generation should inherit a more prosperous Nigeria — not another poverty trap.
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