Non-oil Sectors To Lift Nigeria’s GDP Growth To 4.4% – Stanbic IBTC

Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by approximately 4.4 per cent in 2026, up from 3.87 per cent recorded in 2025, as stronger performance across the non-oil sectors continues to broaden the country’s growth base, Stanbic IBTC Bank has projected.

The bank said manufacturing, information and communications technology (ICT), trade, real estate, and finance and insurance are expected to be major contributors to the stronger growth outlook, amid sustained improvement in private sector activity.

Head of Equity Research, West Africa, at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, said the strong performance recorded at the end of the third quarter indicated that the economy was gaining momentum, with the bank estimating 4.56 per cent year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 2026.

“The non-oil sector is expected to perform better in 2026 compared to 2025 as more sectors contribute to improvement in GDP growth rate this year,” Oni said.

According to him, the three broad sectors of the economy are expected to record improved performance, with manufacturing projected to receive the biggest boost, partly due to low statistical base effects from 2025.

He added that ICT, trade, real estate, and finance and insurance were likely to remain the biggest drivers of growth in the services sector.

The projection came as the headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose sharply to 56.4 in September from 54.3 in August, reaching its highest level since February 2022.

The latest PMI reading signalled the most pronounced expansion in private sector activity in more than four years, with new orders and output both increasing at their fastest rates since February 2022.

Stanbic IBTC said the expansion was broad-based, with marked improvements recorded across all four categories monitored in the survey, reflecting stronger customer demand and the introduction of new products.

The bank said the strong private sector performance in the third quarter provided support for expectations of sustained growth in the non-oil economy through the final quarter of the year.

However, the acceleration in economic activity was accompanied by renewed cost pressures, with companies reporting faster increases in input and selling prices during September.

According to the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI report, purchase price inflation accelerated to a three-month high at the end of the third quarter.

Businesses attributed the higher costs largely to increased fuel prices and their impact on transportation, as well as rising prices of animal feed, foodstuffs and other raw materials.

Staff costs also increased at a faster pace as companies sought to cushion employees against higher living costs and provided incentives for workers completing projects on schedule.

The increase in input and labour costs subsequently translated into higher selling prices, with output price inflation reaching its fastest pace since June.

Despite the cost pressures, companies significantly increased their purchasing activity, resulting in the largest accumulation of inventories since the end of 2021.

The report also noted that prompt payments to suppliers helped ensure timely deliveries, while vendor performance improved for the third consecutive month.

Employment increased modestly during the month, although many of the new hires were temporary workers. The additional workforce helped companies manage rising workloads, while backlogs of work declined for the second consecutive month, albeit marginally.

The September PMI performance, Stanbic IBTC said, reinforces the outlook for a broader-based expansion of Nigeria’s economy, with increasing contributions from non-oil sectors expected to support stronger GDP growth in 2026.