Sifuna Opposition front-runner at 19.6%, Kalonzo 10.3%, Matiang’i 7.2%, Gachagua 6.0% in new Politrack survey

NAIROBI, Kenya Oct 1 – Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading Opposition presidential contender with 19.6 per cent support in a new Politrack Africa survey, while President William Ruto leads the overall presidential preference at 45.1 per cent.

The survey, released at a press conference in Nairobi on Thursday, asked respondents which presidential candidate they would vote for if elections were held today.

Sifuna is followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 10.3 per cent, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 7.2 per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 6.0 per cent.

Undecided respondents account for 8.4 per cent, while Prof George Wajackoyah has 1.1 per cent, Martha Karua and David Maraga 0.8 per cent each, James Orengo 0.4 per cent and Jimmy Wanjigi 0.3 per cent.

Politrack says Ruto “leads the national presidential preference tally at 45.1%”, while Sifuna has emerged as a significant challenger with 19.6 per cent support.

UDA leads party preferences

At the party level, Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leads national party and coalition preferences at 32 per cent.

The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) is second at 11.7 per cent, followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 10.6 per cent.

Jubilee has 6.9 per cent, Wiper 5.6 per cent, Kenya Kwanza 3.5 per cent and Azimio 3.2 per cent.

The survey shows that 9.1 per cent preferred not to disclose their party preference, 7.3 per cent said they supported none, while 2.3 per cent were unsure.

Country direction almost evenly split

The poll also found a near-even division over the direction of the country.

Some 45.2 per cent of respondents said Kenya is moving in the right direction, compared with 44.6 per cent who said the country is moving in the wrong direction. Another 10.2 per cent were unsure.

On government performance, roads and housing were identified as the best-performing sectors, each receiving 16.3 per cent, followed by health services, SHIF and SHA at 13 per cent and agriculture at 10 per cent.

However, health services, SHIF and SHA also recorded the highest negative assessment at 19.2 per cent, followed by the fight against corruption at 18.4 per cent and the economy and cost of living at 12 per cent. Jobs and youth opportunities recorded 10.4 per cent.

Majority open to female deputy president

The survey also examined whether Kenyans are ready for the country’s first female deputy president.

Politrack found that 53 per cent expressed readiness, comprising 16 per cent who were “very ready” and 37 per cent who were “somewhat ready”.

Among respondents open to a female deputy president, Anne Waiguru led with 36 per cent, followed by Martha Karua at 27 per cent and Gladys Wanga at 15 per cent.

The survey was conducted between September 15 and 25 among 20,419 respondents across the country. Politrack says the national estimates were weighted according to each county’s share of registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and a 95 per cent confidence level.