Short Rains Begin as Met Department Reveals When Rain Will Hit Each Region

Kenya has officially entered its October-December short rains season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service warning of wetter-than-normal conditions and releasing a staggered schedule for the onset of rainfall across different regions.

Rains have already commenced across 24 counties, including major parts of the Coast, Western Kenya, and the Rift Valley. Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki stated that precipitation will spread to the remaining regions over the coming weeks, with Turkana and Samburu expected to experience onset during the third or fourth week of October.

Muriuki advised farmers and residents to monitor localized advisories issued by county meteorological offices, noting that rainfall timing and intensity will vary significantly across different zones.

Expected Timeline and Regional Rainfall Distribution

The Meteorological Department outlined the following regional timeline for the October-December season:

• Ongoing Rains: Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Narok, as well as the coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, and the Tana Delta.
• First to Second Week of October: Northern and eastern counties, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo.
• Mid-to-Late October: Central Kenya, Ukambani, and surrounding regions, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and inland parts of Tana River.
• Late October (3rd–4th Week): Turkana and Samburu, where total seasonal rainfall is forecast to remain relatively low compared to the rest of the country.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across central, eastern, and coastal regions, as well as parts of the Rift Valley. In contrast, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo will likely see their rainy season end by early to mid-December, while other central, eastern, and western counties may experience continued rainfall into January.

Agricultural Impacts and Climate Drivers

The forecast brings mixed prospects for the agricultural sector. Enhanced moisture levels will support land preparation, crop planting, pasture regeneration, and livestock water supply.

However, meteorologists cautioned that heavy downpours present serious operational challenges, including soil waterlogging, increased crop disease risks, harvest disruptions, and transport bottlenecks along rural road networks.

Above-average temperatures are also projected nationwide throughout the season.

The current weather pattern is driven by the co-occurrence of El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Muriuki urged the public not to attribute the rainfall solely to El Niño, pointing out that multiple interacting climate systems dictate regional atmospheric patterns.

Authorities warned residents in low-lying areas, floodplain communities, and landslide-prone terrain to take precautionary measures against potential flash floods and severe soil erosion as the season progresses.

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