Oil Theft Slumps 82.9% to 17,600bpd in Five Years Amid Fresh Uptick in Losses

Meanwhile, official operational statistics published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that daily crude oil losses, which fell to a five-year low of 9,100 bpd in 2025, rose by 93.4 per cent to 17,600 bpd between January and July 2026.

The figures in the commission’s fifth anniversary publication, ‘The Upstream Gaze’, highlighted both progress in curbing crude theft and the ongoing challenge of protecting oil production and transportation infrastructure.

According to the data, daily losses declined from 102,900 bpd in 2021 to 55,000 bpd in 2022, representing a 46.5 per cent reduction. The downward trend continued in 2023 when losses dropped to 22,900 bpd, before falling further to 11,200 bpd in 2024 and 9,100 bpd in 2025.

The federal government attributed the cut in crude losses to the combined efforts of the military, local pipeline surveillance groups in the Niger Delta, and the introduction of modern crude measuring devices in the region.

The figures showed that Nigeria’s total liquid hydrocarbon production, comprising crude oil and condensate, gradually recovered from the lows recorded in recent years.

Output averaged 1.63 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, compared with 1.62 million bpd in 2025, 1.56 million bpd in 2024, 1.47 million bpd in 2023 and 1.38 million bpd in 2022. Production stood at 1.62 million bpd in 2021, the NUPRC data highlighted.

Crude oil production alone averaged 1.46 million bpd in the period under review, up from 1.43 million bpd in 2025, 1.35 million bpd in 2024, 1.24 million bpd in 2023 and 1.14 million bpd in 2022. The figure for 2021 was 1.31 million bpd.

In contrast, blended condensate production continued its downward trend, averaging 170,000 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, compared with 190,000 bpd in 2025, 210,000 bpd in 2024, 230,000 bpd in 2023, 240,000 bpd in 2022, and 310,000 bpd in 2021.

The gradual improvement in crude production also coincided with a significant shift in how the country allocates its oil, particularly the growing share supplied to domestic refineries as Nigeria expands its local refining capacity.

Supply to domestic refineries climbed to 460,000 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, up from 280,000 bpd in 2025, 220,000 bpd in 2024, 20,000 bpd in 2023, and just 10,000 bpd in 2022. Domestic refinery supply was virtually non-existent in 2021.

At 460,000 bpd, local refineries accounted for approximately 29 per cent of the 1.61 million bpd in total crude oil lifted during the period. The allocation represented a 64.3 per cent increase over the 280,000 bpd supplied to domestic refineries in 2025, underscoring growing demand for locally processed crude.

Similarly, the shift coincided with a decline in crude available for export, as the government struggled to meet local supply. Average daily crude exports fell to 1.15 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, from 1.33 million bpd in 2025; 1.31 million bpd in 2024; 1.47 million bpd in 2023; 1.32 million bpd in 2022 and 1.51 million bpd in 2021.

The latest export figures were down 13.5 per cent from the 2025 level and 23.8 per cent from the 2021 volume.

In the same vein, total crude lifting averaged 1.61 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, marginally below the 1.62 million bpd recorded in 2025. The figures suggested that the growing allocation to domestic refineries has been accompanied by a reduction in export volumes, rather than a comparable increase in total crude lifted.