November fuel price outlook: Here’s what you’re likely to pay for petrol and diesel from Wednesday

Ask AI 2minNovember fuel price relief is on the way, but motorists should not expect the full benefit of the temporary tax cuts to reach their pockets.

South African motorists can look forward to some cost relief at the pumps from Wednesday, November 4, with temporary tax reductions set to bring down petrol and diesel prices.

Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates potential price cuts of 50 cents for 95 Unleaded and 93 cents for 93 Unleaded, likely averaging out at a 42-cent reduction across both grades. On the diesel front, price reductions of R1.58 for 500ppm and R1.68 for 50ppm are looking likely.

These predictions factor in the temporary fuel relief measures announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana earlier this month. The General Fuel Levy will be reduced by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 for diesel from November 4 until December 1, before the reductions decrease to R1.00 and R1.50 respectively from December 2 until January 5, 2027.

However, other factors, such as the Slate Levy, could also influence the final fuel price adjustments, which will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources early this week.

Should the above predictions materialise, South Africans will pay around R28.96 for a litre of 95 Unleaded at the coast and R29.83 inland, where 93 Unleaded will retail for around R29.46.

The wholesale price of 500ppm diesel is expected to decline to R29.50 at the coast and R30.37 inland, with 50ppm costing R30.25 and R31.12 respectively.

Were it not for the temporary fuel relief measures announced ahead of the local government elections, South Africans would have faced petrol price increases of up to R1.16 per litre and R1.42 for diesel.

International oil prices surged in October amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with fears of renewed military action, threats to energy infrastructure and potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raising concerns about global oil supplies.

The November reprieve follows steep fuel price increases of up to R3.33 per litre for petrol and R3.24 for diesel.

Petrol prices have risen by almost R10 per litre this year, with 95 ULP increasing from R19.92 in March to R29.38 in October, while 500ppm diesel has gone up by around R13, from R17.70 in March to R31.08.

The Finance Minister said earlier this month that the government wants to eventually phase out the General Fuel Levy, but replacing the roughly R80 billion in annual revenue it generates would be a significant obstacle. He also called for a rethink of Road Accident Fund funding, while a separate review of the fuel price structure is expected to conclude by March 2027.

However, motorists should not expect fuel taxes to be cut permanently any time soon. Economists have also warned that cutting fuel taxes could undermine public finances, weaken the rand or force spending cuts elsewhere.