By Amos Harris Finance and Development Planning Minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan has presented an upbeat assessment of Liberia’s economic outlook, pointing to accelerated growth, stronger revenue collection, and a declining public debt burden. However, behind the administration’s optimistic narrative, lingering concerns remain over inflation, poverty, unemployment, and whether expanding public expenditure is translating into tangible […] The post Liberia Growth Story Faces Reality Check appeared
By Amos Harris
Finance and Development Planning Minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan has presented an upbeat assessment of Liberia’s economic outlook, pointing to accelerated growth, stronger revenue collection, and a declining public debt burden. However, behind the administration’s optimistic narrative, lingering concerns remain over inflation, poverty, unemployment, and whether expanding public expenditure is translating into tangible benefits for ordinary citizens.
Speaking while chairing the 56th Meeting of the Convergence Council of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), Minister Ngafuan affirmed that Liberia is advancing toward meeting regional convergence criteria ahead of the proposed introduction of the Eco single currency in 2027.
According to Ngafuan, Liberia’s real Gross Domestic Product growth expanded from 4.0 percent in 2024 to an estimated 5.1 percent in 2025, with projections reaching approximately 5.5 percent in 2026. He attributed much of this momentum to the mining sector, particularly iron ore, alongside anticipated improvements across manufacturing, electricity, construction, trade, and services.
Despite these headline figures, critical questions remain regarding how broadly this expansion reaches the populace. Concentrated growth in extractive industries generates government revenue and foreign exchange, but it does not automatically generate widespread employment or lower everyday living costs unless revenues are efficiently funneled into productive sectors and human capital.
On inflation, Ngafuan noted that end-period inflation dropped from 10.7 percent in December 2024 to 4.0 percent in December 2025, before ticking up to 5.0 percent in June 2026 due to rising imported fuel prices. Average inflation remains Liberia’s sole outstanding primary WAMZ convergence benchmark. While officials expect to satisfy this criterion by the end of 2026, price fluctuations continue to affect households managing high food, transportation, and basic living expenses.
Regarding fiscal health, revenue and grants rose by 18.6 percent, moving from US$748.2 million in 2024 to US$887.6 million in 2025. Ngafuan linked this uptick to digital collection systems, improved tax compliance, and enhanced domestic revenue mobilization. Concurrently, Liberia reduced its public debt-to-GDP ratio from 56.4 percent in 2024 to 54.9 percent in 2025, even as government expenditure grew by 10.2 percent.
The government’s US$1.3 billion Fiscal Year 2026 national budget, designated as the largest in the nation’s history, is structured to fund the ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development. Beyond the size of the allocation, the true gauge of success will depend on delivery across infrastructure, healthcare, education, and job creation. Ngafuan highlighted major road corridor initiatives, including the Monrovia-Freetown highway, the Southeastern Corridor, and the Bong-to-Lofa road, as vital links to lower transport costs and boost regional commerce.
Addressing tax reform, the Minister defended adjustments to the Goods and Services Tax alongside preparations for Value Added Tax implementation set for January 2027. While designed to stabilize domestic revenues, consumption tax adjustments require careful management to avoid disproportionately burdening lower-income households.
In terms of regional monetary integration, Liberia satisfied three of four primary WAMZ criteria in 2025, covering fiscal deficit targets, central bank financing limits, and external reserves, while maintaining compliance across both secondary benchmarks regarding exchange rate stability and public debt limits. Yet, regional hurdles persist, as no WAMZ member state met all four primary targets in 2025, raising questions about the timelines surrounding the 2027 Eco launch.
While Liberia’s medium-term economic outlook remains positive, external risks, including volatile commodity markets, global trade tensions, and external funding adjustments, could impact these projections. Moving forward, the administration faces the ongoing task of ensuring that macroeconomic performance aligns directly with improved living standards and measurable economic relief for households across the country.
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