One year after Gaza ceasefire: A truce without a clear path to peace

On October 10, 2025, the first phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, halting nearly two years of fighting in Gaza. A year later, however, violence continues, plans for postwar governance remain stalled and reconstruction faces a massive funding shortfall.

Despite decades of diplomatic efforts, a lasting settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains elusive. Deep-rooted historical grievances, disputes over territory and Palestinian statehood and persistent security concerns continue to undermine international peace efforts.

The Gaza ceasefire has done little to resolve the underlying issues. With key questions over security, governance and the future of the Palestinian people unanswered, the path from a fragile truce to a lasting political settlement remains uncertain.

Violence and Israeli expansion continue

Under the first phase of the agreement, Israel suspended major military operations and withdrew from parts of Gaza. The remaining Israeli hostages held in the territory were released, while Israel also freed hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Although large-scale fighting has not resumed, sporadic clashes and Israeli airstrikes have continued.

Gaza’s health authorities say at least 1 400 Palestinians, including women and children, have been killed since the ceasefire took effect. The Israeli military says its strikes have targeted Hamas militants and accuses the group of attempting to rearm. Hamas has denied the allegation.

The area under Israeli military control has continued to expand. The so-called Yellow Line established under the first phase of the ceasefire initially placed around 53% of Gaza under Israeli control. Israel effectively controls roughly two-thirds of the territory.

As a result, around two million Palestinians are confined to a shrinking coastal strip, with many forced to shelter in tents or damaged buildings.

Palestinians in Gaza also struggle to secure basic necessities. Although the volume of supplies entering the territory has increased since the ceasefire, humanitarian organisations say deliveries remain far below what is needed.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global initiative that monitors food insecurity, estimates that more than 1.2 million people in Gaza continue to face acute food insecurity.

According to an IPC report released in August, an average of around 227 trucks carrying humanitarian and commercial supplies entered Gaza each day between the start of the ceasefire and the end of May this year. That’s less than half the minimum of 600 trucks a day stipulated under the ceasefire plan.

Displaced Palestinians gather to collect free water from a distribution truck near the Yellow Line east of Gaza City, Gaza, Palestine, August 18, 2026. /VCG

Postwar roadmap remains deadlocked

Beyond the fragile ceasefire, the next phase of the agreement faces major obstacles.

In July, the US-led “Board of Peace” proposed a 15-point roadmap calling for Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza to surrender their weapons, followed by a gradual Israeli military withdrawal. An international stabilisation force and a new Palestinian security force would then assume responsibility for security in the territory.

Hamas subsequently said it was willing to place its weapons in the custody of a US-backed Palestinian technocratic administration. However, Israel has insisted that it will not withdraw its troops until Hamas has fully disarmed, leaving the two sides at an impasse.

At the same time, Israel has continued expanding its control beyond the Yellow Line and has increasingly described the line as a permanent “new border” and a forward defensive perimeter.

Disagreements over Hamas’s disarmament and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, along with concerns about the lack of a clear legal framework, have also stalled plans for an international stabilisation force. Only a handful of countries have made initial or symbolic commitments and the force has yet to be formally established.

Under the longer-term plan, the force is expected to comprise around 20 000 personnel and train 12 000 Palestinian police officers.

Governance arrangements remain equally uncertain. A Palestinian technocratic body established in January to oversee Gaza’s day-to-day administration has yet to enter the territory due to Israeli restrictions. The committee remains temporarily headquartered in Cairo, Egypt, rather than operating inside Gaza as originally envisaged.

Without progress on security, military withdrawal and governance, the transition from a ceasefire to a functioning postwar administration remains elusive.

Palestinians, including children carrying cooking pots, gather to receive hot meals distributed in the Nuseirat Refugee Camp in Gaza City, Gaza, Palestine, on September 28, 2026. /VCG

Reconstruction faces a massive funding gap

Even if the political and security deadlock can be resolved, rebuilding Gaza will be an enormous undertaking.

In September, the “Board of Peace” announced an initial reconstruction plan worth $2.45 billion (R40.5bn). Yet this amount falls far short of the estimated cost of recovery.

A report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) in September put Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction needs at around $71.5bn, with the total potentially rising further. The funding announced so far represents only a small fraction of that estimate.

The damage extends far beyond homes, roads and other physical infrastructure.

Unctad says around 92% of Gaza’s economic establishments capable of generating jobs and income have been damaged or destroyed, while more than 90% of the working-age population is unemployed.

Reconstruction, therefore, is not simply a matter of rebuilding infrastructure but also of reviving economic activity and restoring livelihoods.

A year after the ceasefire, Gaza remains caught between a war that has not fully ended and a peace that has yet to begin. With Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, postwar governance and reconstruction unresolved, the ceasefire risks becoming little more than a pause in the conflict, while the seeds of another crisis could be taking root.