According to the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, sustained safe-haven demand is expected to keep gold prices firm, supporting export receipts, while cocoa exports should benefit from higher prices and improving supply conditions.
The Bank of Ghana says the outlook for Ghana’s external sector remains positive for the second half of 2026.
This is underpinned by strong export receipts, despite heightened global uncertainty.
According to the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, sustained safe-haven demand is expected to keep gold prices firm, supporting export receipts, while cocoa exports should benefit from higher prices and improving supply conditions.
However, the crude oil market remains vulnerable to developments in the Middle East, with elevated oil prices likely to keep import costs above pre-conflict levels.
Overall, the external sector is expected to remain resilient in the second half of 2026 and continues providing support to macroeconomic stability.
Meanwhile, the trade balance for the first half of 2026 recorded a surplus of US$8.81 billion, up US$3.05 billion from the US$5.76 billion recorded in the same period of 2025.
The improved trade surplus resulted from higher export earnings, which outpaced the increase in import bills. Total exports were valued at US$18.28 billion in the first half of 2026, up 32.5% from US$13.79 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.
The value of gold exports rose by 49.0% to US$12.50 billion, up from US$8.39 billion in 2025, driven by a 49.7% increase in the average realized price to US$4,463.80 per fine ounce.
However, the volume of gold exports remained broadly flat at 2.80 million fine ounces, down 0.5% from 2.81 million fine ounces largely due to shipment disruptions occasioned by the onset of the Middle East conflict.
The value of cocoa exports (beans and products) increased marginally to US$2.29 billion, up from US$2.17 billion, driven by higher cocoa beans and product prices, while export volumes declined.
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