Nigeria’s petrol imports drop 30% as daily consumption rises to 44.4m litres

Nigeria’s daily petrol imports fell by 30.1 per cent to 10.2 million litres in September 2026, even as domestic consumption rose to 44.4 million litres per day, widening the gap between supply and demand.

The latest figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that combined daily petrol receipts declined to 38.7 million litres, leaving a supply deficit of 5.7 million litres against reported consumption.

Domestic petrol receipts also weakened, falling by 20.6 per cent from 35.9 million litres per day in August to 28.5 million litres in September.

The decline in domestic supplies coincided with a 30.1 per cent reduction in imports, from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres daily.

Meanwhile, petrol consumption increased by seven per cent from 41.5 million litres per day in August, putting additional pressure on available supplies.

According to the regulator’s factsheet, total daily receipts covered approximately 87.2 per cent of reported consumption in September

Petrol stock cover improved marginally from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September but remained below the NMDPRA’s 30-day benchmark.

The figures indicate that declining imports were accompanied by weaker domestic receipts, leaving the market with insufficient reported supplies to meet daily demand

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The NMDPRA data showed considerable fluctuations in daily petrol imports between January and September 2026

Imports stood at 24.8 million litres per day in January before plunging to 3.0 million litres in February. They recovered to 5.9 million litres in March, declined to 3.7 million litres in April and rose to 5.9 million litres in May.

Import volumes subsequently climbed to 18.1 million litres per day in June and peaked at 19.7 million litres in July before declining in August and September.

September’s daily import volume was 48.2 per cent below July’s peak.

Domestic receipts followed a different trajectory, rising from 40.1 million litres per day in January to a high of 41.5 million litres in May.

However, domestic supplies fell to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July before recovering in August and declining again in September.

The latest figures raise questions about the consistency of domestic petrol supply despite investments and capacity expansion in Nigeria’s refining industry

Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products has significant implications for foreign exchange demand and the country’s import expenditure.

Earlier reports indicated that the country’s petrol import bill surged by 989.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N952.15 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with N87.40 billion in the first quarter.

The development came amid reported year-on-year growth of 43.94 per cent in the oil refining sector during the second quarter.

The Dangote refinery’s crude oil distillation capacity also increased from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day following maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026.

However, the September supply figures suggest that expanded refining capacity has yet to translate into sufficient reported domestic petrol receipts to cover national consumption consistently.

The distinction between installed refining capacity and actual petrol output is important, as crude processing capacity does not automatically translate into equivalent volumes of finished petrol available to the domestic market.

Earlier reports also showed that Nigeria’s petrol import bill declined to $10 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024.

In 2024, import costs rose by 105.3 per cent to N15.42 trillion, the highest on record, largely reflecting the impact of a 40.9 per cent depreciation of the naira on the local-currency cost of imports.

The latest September data underscore the need for consistent domestic refining output and efficient distribution to reduce exposure to import costs while meeting growing demand.

For Nigeria to reduce petrol import dependence sustainably, domestic refineries will need to deliver reliable volumes, while regulators and industry operators ensure adequate stocks and uninterrupted distribution.

Until domestic receipts consistently match consumption, shortfalls in supply could leave the market vulnerable to disruptions, despite the country’s expanding refining capacity.