NPP National Elections: Legon Dons Tip Boakye- Antwi, Agyarko To Win

An overwhelming majority of New Patriotic Party (NPP) delegates surveyed in a University of Ghana research have identified former Subin Member of Parliament, Eugene Boakye Antwi, as the candidate they expect to win the party’s National General Secretary election, scheduled for October 3, 2026.

Eugene Boakye Antwi

The research, conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Ghana, and led by Dr. Chris Atadika, found that 74.2 per cent of the 889 respondents expected Mr. Boakye Antwi to win the General Secretary contest.

Incumbent General Secretary, Justin Frimpong Kodua, was identified by 25.1 per cent of respondents, while Sylvester Tetteh was mentioned by 0.7 per cent.

The researchers, however, stressed that the findings represented the expectations and perceptions of the respondents surveyed and should not be interpreted as an independent prediction of the outcome of the election.

Other indicators

The research also placed Mr. Boakye Antwi ahead on a number of other key indicators, including candidate preference and perceived ability to help the NPP win the 2028 general election.

When respondents were asked to identify their most preferred candidate for the General Secretary position, 76.6 per cent selected Mr. Boakye Antwi, compared with 23.1 per cent for Mr. Kodua.

On the question of which candidate could help the party win the 2028 general election, Mr. Boakye Antwi again led with 60.1 per cent, while Mr. Kodua recorded 39.2 per cent. Sylvester Tetteh garnered 0.69 per cent of respondents.

Mr. Boakye Antwi also recorded higher name recognition among the respondents. The study found that 82.7 per cent of respondents mentioned the former Deputy Minister for Works and Housing’s name when asked to identify candidates contesting the General Secretary position, compared with 13 per cent for Mr. Kodua.

Dr. Atadika said the study was undertaken to go beyond the figures produced by conventional quantitative polls and understand the reasons behind delegates’ choices and perceptions.

He said the research team had become interested in the issue because of the different polling figures emerging around the NPP’s internal elections.

“We went in to find out what the issues are, because constantly we have seen some other research institutes or institutions or outfits put out figures to this particular conversation, who is leading, who has been leading month on month over time, and so on.”

He explained that the team, therefore, sought to examine not only who delegates preferred, but also the factors influencing those preferences.

“Our research objective [was] to ascertain delegates’ preference of candidates best fit to occupy the various positions, and then also to look at the factors that are influencing their decision,” he said.

Qualities sought in General Secretary

The research further examined the characteristics delegates considered important for the person who should occupy the General Secretary position.

Good communication skills, boldness, the ability to help the party secure victory in 2028 and the ability to unify the party emerged among the key qualities identified.

Other characteristics included understanding the plight of the people, particularly delegates and the wider citizenry, being interested in the role beyond personal benefits, restoring discipline and unity within the party, being grassroots-oriented and having the ability to mobilise.

“One that came up top was one who had good communication skills, one who was bold, one who has the ability to ensure a win in 2028, one who is a unifier, one who understands the plight of the people, particularly in this instance of looking at the delegates and obviously extension to the citizenry,” Dr. Atadika said.

He added that delegates were also looking for a General Secretary who would approach the position with the interest of the party, beyond personal considerations.

NPP’s 2028 prospects

The study also sought to understand how delegates viewed the NPP’s prospects ahead of the 2028 general election.

Dr. Atadika said 97.64 per cent of the respondents believed the NPP could win the 2028 general election.

The researchers also asked whether the type of national leadership elected by the party would influence the party’s ability to support its flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in the 2028 election.

According to Dr. Atadika, more than 97 per cent of the delegates believed that the leadership selected at the national level would have an influence on the party’s ability to support Dr. Bawumia’s bid.

He said this was one of the reasons the research team sought to understand the qualities that delegates were looking for in the next national executives.

Discipline & Communication top concerns

The study also asked delegates to identify the characteristics they wanted in the next crop of NPP national executives.

Dr. Atadika said restoring discipline emerged as the most frequently identified characteristic, with 53.3 per cent of respondents selecting it.

He said this was followed by good communication skills, boldness in action, ability to defend the party, restoring the party’s glory, being a unifier and having strong grassroots connections.

“Some of the characteristics that came up supreme, was one, restoring discipline in the party, and we had 53.3 per cent of delegates having the opinion that they need executives that will restore discipline within the party,” he said.

He added that the findings could indicate that delegates wanted a change in the way the party was being led.

“All these are indications that the delegates think that these things do not currently exist with the current leadership at the national level, and that they want a new leadership or a new form of leadership,” Dr. Atadika said.

“It may be the same leaders being repeated, but they need to have a different change in direction when it comes to leading the party.”

How the research was conducted

The study involved 889 NPP stakeholders and combined online and physical data collection.

Dr. Atadika explained that the researchers selected specific catchment areas where representatives engaged delegates directly.

“We combined both the online form of data collection and then the physical form of data collection.

“We printed out the questions. We got our reps to go to the various catchment areas that we selected or we narrowed down on,” he said.

According to him, delegates were gathered at selected locations where the questions were explained to them before they provided their responses.

He said research assistants also assisted delegates who were unable to read or write by explaining the questions and recording their responses.

Dr. Atadika said the sample of 889 was selected against the estimated NPP delegate base and the researchers’ calculations using the Cochran Formula, a 95 per cent confidence level and a five per cent margin of error.

He explained that although the study was quantitative in its data collection, the researchers were interested in understanding the reasons behind the numbers emerging from other polling exercises.

“We identified that this particular study is quantitative in orientation and because of that, it would be difficult to understand the whys behind these figures that we have,” he said.

“So what we sought to do was to look more into a qualitative inquiry to say that: what is the reason behind some of these values that we have seen, how they have increased over the period, how they have decreased.”

Research also examines chairmanship race

The study also examined the NPP National Chairmanship contest, with researchers identifying the characteristics delegates wanted in the next chairman.

These included impartiality, tolerance, boldness, discipline, unity, good communication skills, competence, approachability, good leadership, mobilisation ability and putting the interests of the job above money and popularity.

When respondents were asked which candidate possessed the characteristics they considered best suited for the position, Boakye Agyarko recorded 60.7 per cent, followed by John Boadu with 33.5 per cent and Paul Afoko with 5.9 per cent.

On which candidate respondents believed could help the party win the 2028 election, Mr. Agyarko recorded 65.5 per cent, followed by Mr. Boadu with 32.42 per cent and Mr. Afoko with 2.07 per cent.

The research also measured respondents’ most preferred candidate in the chairmanship race.

Mr. Agyarko recorded 76.4 per cent, followed by Mr. Boadu with 17.9 per cent and Mr. Afoko with 2 per cent.

Dr. Atadika said the researchers also asked delegates a separate question on whether there was a candidate they preferred but believed might not have the capacity to win the election.

He explained that the question was intended to determine whether delegates differentiated between their personal preference for a candidate and their assessment of that candidate’s ability to win.

“One thing we know about voter behaviour is no electorate wants to vote for someone who would possibly lose the election. People want to identify with the winning team,” the Legon Don said.

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