ODM fights for survival one year after Raila

NAIROBI, Kenya Oct 14 – One year after Raila Odinga’s death, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faces its biggest political test yet: whether it can remain a national political force without the man who built it, united its supporters and shaped its identity for more than two decades.

The party still commands significant support, but disagreements over its leadership, its relationship with President William Ruto and its plans for the 2027 General Election are raising questions about its future.

Kenya is marking Raila’s first anniversary since his death with President Ruto expected to lead the nation in the commemoration.

Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Oginga, now leads the party and has defended cooperation with President Ruto’s administration.

However, other leaders have questioned whether ODM should abandon its traditional opposition role and surrender the chance to field its own presidential candidate.

The disagreements have exposed a party struggling to balance its past with the political opportunities and risks of the coming election.

The biggest question facing ODM is whether it will present its own presidential candidate or support Ruto’s re-election bid.

In July 2026, Oburu announced that ODM would not field a presidential candidate and would instead support Ruto for a second term.

“I want to make it official that ODM will not field a presidential candidate in the next year’s general election. Instead, we are going to support President Ruto to be elected again for a second term,” Oburu said during a fundraiser in Homa Bay.

He argued that the partnership would give the party a stronger position in government and help secure development projects for its traditional strongholds.

The position, however, has not ended the debate within ODM.

In September, Oburu gave a fresh indication that the party could still field a presidential candidate, reopening questions about its final position.

Meanwhile, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo has challenged the suggestion that ODM should surrender the presidential contest.

“Who told you ODM will not have a presidential candidate in 2027?” Amollo asked, warning that the vision Raila had expressed for the party was under threat.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has defended the partnership with Ruto, saying ODM would continue working with the President beyond the 2027 election.

“I can dare say without any fear of contradiction that we are going to walk step by step with President William Ruto to the end, now and beyond 2027,” Wandayi said.

Ruto moves to claim Raila’s legacy

President Ruto has increasingly presented his relationship with ODM as a continuation of Raila’s final political strategy.

During a church service in Kisumu on September 13, the President acknowledged that Raila could not be replaced but argued that his legacy could continue through cooperation and development.

“It may not be possible to replace the late Raila Odinga, but we can work to make sure that his legacy is carried on in the development of our nation,” Ruto said.

He also sought to reassure ODM supporters that the partnership between the two parties would continue.

“ODM and UDA are not competitors but rather collaborators, and I will ensure his legacy lives on,” the President said.

President Ruto has urged residents of Nyanza to remain within the broad-based government arrangement, arguing that the partnership was part of the agreement he reached with Raila before the former Prime Minister’s death.

Party popularity: ODM remains a major political force

Despite the leadership disputes, opinion polls show that ODM has not disappeared from Kenya’s political landscape.

Two major surveys released in July 2026 placed the party among the country’s most popular political formations, although they differed over whether it was ahead of Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

A TIFA Research survey based on fieldwork conducted in June placed ODM at 20 per cent, ahead of UDA at 17 per cent. The poll showed that ODM had recovered from 13 per cent support in August 2025.

However, an Infotrak survey released in July placed UDA at 22 per cent and ODM at 21 per cent, giving Ruto’s party a narrow lead.

The Infotrak findings also showed that ODM’s support had fallen from 38 per cent in September 2024 to 21 per cent in June 2026.

What by-elections reveal about ODM’s survival

ODM’s recent by-election performance provides another indication that the party retains a strong grassroots organisation.

In November 2025, the party won three parliamentary contests in Ugunja, Kasipul and Magarini.

In Kasipul, Boyd Were won with 16,819 votes, defeating independent candidate Philip Aroko, who received 8,476 votes.

In Ugunja, ODM candidate Moses Omondi won with 9,447 votes, comfortably ahead of Wiper’s Orodi Odhiambo, who received 1,819 votes.

At the Coast, Harrison Kombe won the Magarini seat with 17,909 votes, defeating DCP candidate Stanley Kenga, who received 8,907 votes.

The victories demonstrated that ODM could still mobilise voters and defend constituencies beyond the immediate question of who would succeed Raila.

However, the results must be read in context. Ugunja and Kasipul are in the party’s traditional political heartland, where its candidates benefited from established support networks. By-elections also differ from a nationwide presidential contest.

ODM’s membership is another measure of the organisation it must preserve.

The party’s official website has published a figure of more than five million registered members nationwide. Another page on its website lists more than 12 million, leaving an inconsistency in its publicly displayed membership figures.

The Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) maintains Kenya’s official political-party membership register, but the latest material reviewed for this story does not establish an independently verified, current ODM-specific total.

The fight over Raila’s legacy

Raila was more than ODM’s party leader. For many supporters, he represented the party’s history, its struggles for political reform and its promise of a different style of leadership.

His ability to attract supporters across regions and political divides helped ODM remain relevant through several election cycles.

That influence is now at the centre of a struggle over who has the authority to define the party’s future.

Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter and an East African Legislative Assembly member, has warned against leaders using the late politician’s name to advance their own positions.

“It’s quite difficult living in a world without him,” Winnie said, adding that it was disrespectful for people to claim that the departed leader would have supported particular decisions.

Ruth Odinga, Kisumu Woman Representative and Raila’s sister, has also warned leaders against treating ODM as a vehicle for securing positions.

“ODM must live for the people, not for positions. The struggle continues, and the youth must rise,” she said.

Sifuna’s fallout exposes the leadership challenge

The fallout involving Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has further exposed the divisions within ODM.

Sifuna, a former party secretary-general, was removed from the position and stripped of his Senate leadership role before unveiling the Linda Mwananchi movement as he sets his sights on the 2027 presidential ambitions.

Sifuna has said he did not want to be responsible for destroying the party Raila left behind.

“I want Baba, wherever he is, to know that I actually kept my promise during his burial not to be the one to wreck his party,” he said.

He also argued that his request for arbitration under the ODM constitution had been rejected.

Political analysts have long warned that parties built around dominant personalities face difficult succession battles when their founders leave the scene.

Former Mwingi Central MP Joe Mutambu has argued that Raila was so central to ODM’s identity that his departure would transform the political landscape.

“There is no ODM, ODM was Raila, and Raila was ODM,” Mutambu said.

ODM has survived multiple election cycles, developed a national network and built a political identity around issues such as constitutional reform, devolution, political inclusion and social justice.

What comes next for ODM?

As the first anniversary of Raila’s death approaches, ODM is facing three connected tests.

The first is unity. Leaders must decide whether they can accommodate different views without driving members out of the party.

The second is political independence. The party must establish whether its partnership with Ruto will strengthen its influence or undermine its ability to hold the government accountable.

The third is succession. Oburu and other senior leaders must demonstrate that ODM can make difficult decisions through institutions rather than relying on the personal authority Raila once exercised.

Raila himself expressed confidence that the party could survive him. In remarks quoted in the material surrounding the succession debate, he said ODM should remain strong even when he was no longer there.

That aspiration now faces its most serious test.

The party’s poll ratings, by-election victories and national structures show that it still has a political base. Yet its disagreements over the presidency, internal discipline and the meaning of Raila’s legacy show that organisational survival is not the same as political unity.

ODM may survive without Raila. Whether it can remain the force he built will depend on what its leaders do next and whether they can convince supporters that the party represents more than the memory of its founder.