Governance Index Rates Tinubu’s Government ‘Failing’ With 28.5% Score

The Centre for Governance Research (CGR), a New York-based research think tank, has rated the administration of President Bola Tinubu as “failing”, awarding it a score of 28.5 per cent in its September 2026 Governance Report.

The report, which assesses governance at the federal and state levels in Nigeria, attributed the low rating to concerns over public debt, budget implementation, security, cash transfers and the President’s prolonged absence from the country.

According to the report, none of the nine indicators used to assess the Federal Government scored above 3.5 out of 10.

Security, basic needs, governance and public sentiment each scored 2.5, while infrastructure recorded the highest score of 3.5.

The report also assessed the performance of state governments, with Imo, Ondo, Benue, Rivers, Taraba and Sokoto among the states said not to have performed well.

Responding to the findings, Dr Catherine Whitmore, the organisation’s Head of Communication and Press Coordinator, described the report as an important milestone in efforts to investigate the causes and effects of poor governance in Africa’s most populous country.

She said the assessment represented a scientific and professional effort to examine governance through evidence-based research.

The report identified rising public debt as one of the factors weighing on the Federal Government’s performance, stating that Nigeria’s total public debt reached N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of N7.44 trillion in three months.

On budget implementation, it stated that Tinubu signed a fourth extension of the 2025 capital budget on September 30, moving its implementation deadline to December 31, 2026.

It also cited records from earlier budget defence sessions indicating that N9.13 billion had been released against N1.218 trillion appropriated across eight ministries, representing about 1.3 per cent of the amount.

The report further questioned the transparency surrounding the President’s absence from Nigeria, stating that he left the country on August 30 and arrived in Lagos on September 29. It added that his return date had been shifted twice and that no health records were published.

On social intervention programmes, the assessment cited an Auditor-General’s query concerning N33.75 billion in cash transfers made in 2023, stating that the records did not establish whether the money reached genuine beneficiaries. The report noted that the agency disputed the query.

Security concerns also featured in the assessment. According to the report, the Presidency put the number of deaths in custody at a detention centre in Minna at 37, while a news agency filmed 33 bodies at a hospital.

It added that at least 87 people, mostly women, were reported missing following two weekend attacks in Niger and Zamfara states.

Despite the low overall rating, the report acknowledged some positive economic developments during the period under review.

These included a decline in inflation to 14.63 per cent, an improvement in the naira’s value, foreign reserves rising above $54 billion, a reduction in the monetary policy rate and salary increases of between 30 and 80 per cent for military personnel.

However, the report concluded that these gains were insufficient to offset the other concerns identified in its assessment.

The CGR said its Governance Report evaluates the Federal Government, the 36 state governments and the Federal Capital Territory monthly using nine indicators: the economy and public finances, security, transparency, basic needs, healthcare, education, infrastructure, governance and public sentiment.

It said the indicators were assigned fixed weights before each assessment and applied uniformly across all governments.

According to the organisation, only events occurring within the month under review are considered, while claims are assessed against available evidence. Government claims of success are treated as claims until independently verified, and disagreements between sources are documented.

The report added that an alternative calculation assigning equal weights to all nine indicators produced a score of 28.3, which it said showed that the overall result was not dependent on the weighting system.

The organisation said the evidence supporting its findings was linked to named sources and publication dates, adding that journalists could request access to the scores and supporting materials.

The full report and methodology are available on the organisation’s website, governanceresearch.org.