Brazil election goes to run-off as right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro wins first round

LONDON, United Kingdom, Oct 5 — The right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, beating the incumbent left-wing President Lula da Silva. But he did not obtain more than 50% of the votes required to win outright.

There will be a run-off vote between these two candidates on 25 October.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of the former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup attempt after losing the last election.

The election was close, with President Lula polling slightly ahead during the campaign. With 99%of the votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16% of the vote.

Bolsonaro’s result exceeded expectations, meaning the second round now looks like his to lose, given some of the other presidential candidates who were knocked out in the first round were right-wing alternatives.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) also had the most governors, senators and federal deputies elected in the results so far, meaning the party is expected to have the most influence in Congress.

The majority of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents, aligned to the Trump administration, and the run-off will determine whether Brazil – Latin America’s largest country and economy – will follow suit or not.

After casting his ballot, Lula, 80, warned that the choice was between democracy and “barbarism”.

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Bolsonaro, 45, said he wanted to “free the Brazilian people”.

The candidates

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva votes in the general election in Sao Bernardo do Campo

Lula and Bolsonaro are the two biggest names in Brazilian politics, on the left and right, and this campaign has polarised Brazil yet again: with themes of sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption being top concerns for voters.

Lula is more popular in Brazil’s poorer northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women.

He is seeking a fourth term in office, after being elected in 2002, 2006 and then a later non-consecutive term in 2022. In that election, he beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2% of the vote, the closest presidential election result in Brazil’s history.

After that election, Bolsonaro’s supporters vandalised government buildings on 8 January 2023.

Jair Bolsonaro was banned from running for re-election even before his prison sentence, but endorsed his eldest son Flávio to run in his place. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate on Sunday.

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Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant his father, and his supporters responsible for the January 8th riots, amnesty if elected.

He is more popular in the south, and among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.

Bolsonaro said on Sunday he was “very happy” to have led Lula in the first-round vote, and expressed confidence that he would clinch a run-off victory in three weeks’ time.

“I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government,” he said, according to AFP.

Lula admitted the outcome of the vote was “unexpected”, but insisted that the race was not over.

“I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round,” he said on Sunday. “The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people.”

US-Brazil relationship

1:57Why has Brazil accused the US of election interference?

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The president of Brazil’s supreme electoral court said on Sunday that no evidence of international interference was found in the election.

During the campaign, President Lula made “sovereignty” a key pillar of his campaign and at times accused the United States of trying to interfere in and influence Brazil’s elections. He has pledged to increase defence spending.

Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the United States to designate the two biggest Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations.

In July, Brazil refused visas for two US State Department officials who Brazil alleged were attempting to sow doubt in Brazil’s electoral system, which the US called “baseless.” It came after Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly told a group of foreign diplomats that Brazil’s voting machines share the same origin as Venezuela’s, which is false.

Last year, Donald Trump used the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro as justification for imposing tariffs on Brazil and sanctioning some top officials and judges.

A win for Flávio Bolsonaro would likely see Brazil join the US’s “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking and align more closely with the US.

Bolsonaro has pledged though to maintain an “economically pragmatic” relationship with China, which has overtaken the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner and is a crucial customer for Brazil’s soy and beef exports.

Key campaign issues

A woman votes at a polling station during Brazil’s general election in Barra de Guaratiba, Rio de Janeiro

Corruption became a key issue in this campaign after a scandal involving a jailed banker, Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil’s largest financial frauds, embroiled senior figures across the political spectrum.

Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged that he’d asked Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father after voice recordings emerged in which he could be heard asking for 134 million reais ($25.9m; £19.5m).

Lula was also impacted by the scandal indirectly, after police suggested Vorcaro had reached out to the Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes to ask for help avoiding arrest. Moraes denies any wrongdoing.

Moraes was not appointed by Lula but is seen as his ally, given Moraes presided over Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial.

Crime and insecurity were also top concerns for voters. Brazil’s homicide rate has fallen, but street crime such as phone thefts, that are highly visible to voters, have increased – and violence and drug trafficking are still major problems.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorists and build maximum-security prisons akin to those in El Salvador. His father, during his presidency, loosened gun ownership restrictions.

Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, is leading incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in partial results

Lula has criticised the US terrorist designation of Brazilian gangs but has launched various reforms to tackle the financial networks of organised crime networks, improve homicide investigations, and invest in prisons.

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The economy has been central to this campaign, too: the country has high levels of personal debt and slowing growth.

Lula has defined his legacy through a series of social welfare programmes, mostly notably Bolsa Família, that pays families to ensure children stay in education and receive healthcare such as vaccines, as well as building more universities. The programmes have been credited with lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

He has backed more investment in data centres and rare earth minerals, which Brazil is rich in, with strong state involvement to ensure that Brazil benefits.

He has also backed oil drilling exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River, which has proved controversial with environmentalists, but he has a record of tightening environmental protections and reducing the rate of deforestation in the Amazon. Deforestation increased significantly under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged a public debt ceiling and government spending cuts, a revision of social welfare, and to bolster the critical minerals sector.

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