Zimbabwe braces for hotter, drier 2026/27 summer

Mashudu Netsianda and Sikhulekelani Moyo, Sunday News Reporters

ZIMBABWE is bracing for a potentially hotter and drier 2026/27 summer cropping season after regional climate experts warned of an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the country.

The forecast has amplified concerns over crop production, water availability and livestock survival, while placing renewed emphasis on early preparedness, climate-smart agriculture and water conservation.

The warning follows the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28, which released its consensus seasonal forecast for the forthcoming rainfall season.

According to the outlook, Zimbabwe and large parts of Southern Africa face an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall during critical stages of the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season.

Zimbabwe, alongside parts of Angola, southern Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho, is expected to experience below-normal rainfall between October and December 2026.

The dry outlook is projected to persist into the peak of the agricultural season.

For the November 2026 to January 2027 period, much of Zimbabwe is again expected to receive below-normal rainfall, while the December 2026 to February 2027 outlook places the bulk of the country in a zone with increased chances of drier-than-normal conditions.

The January to March 2027 forecast paints a similar picture, signalling the possibility of a prolonged and difficult season for farmers and sectors dependent on reliable rainfall.

Only parts of southern Zimbabwe are projected to have a greater likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall.

The regional outlook also warns of above-normal temperatures across most of Southern Africa.

“Temperature outlook covering the period from October 2026 to January 2027 indicates a high likelihood for above-normal temperatures in most parts of the region,” reads part of the SARCOF-33 statement.

Climate experts said the anticipated weather pattern is partly linked to strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific.

El Niño conditions are already established and are expected to intensify, with most climate models pointing to a strong to very strong event peaking around the October-November-December 2026 period.

Other climate drivers, including the developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, sea-surface temperatures, the Angola Low, Botswana/Kalahari circulation patterns and moisture transport systems, could either enhance or moderate the El Niño signal.

Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across large parts of central and southern Africa.

However, climate experts warned that the regional outlook should not be interpreted as a definitive forecast for individual countries or local communities.

Seasonal forecasts indicate broad climate trends and may not capture localised weather systems or variations that occur from month to month.

“Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this outlook, additional guidance and updates,” said the SARCOF-33 statement.

The forum brought together climate experts from SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, the SADC Climate Services Centre and several international climate forecasting institutions.

The outlook is intended to assist governments, farmers, disaster management agencies and other stakeholders to prepare for potential climate-related risks.

For Madagascar, near-normal to below-normal rainfall is expected in northern and western areas, while near-normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for south-eastern parts of the island. Mauritius is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

The forecast comes as Zimbabwe intensifies preparations to protect agriculture and livestock from the possible effects of an El Niño-induced drought.

The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has in several climate updates indicated an 88 to 94 percent probability of an El Niño event developing during the forthcoming agricultural season.

Government has described the forecast as an important planning tool and has already begun mobilising interventions aimed at strengthening resilience among farmers and vulnerable communities.

President Mnangagwa recently said predictions of an El Niño-induced drought should spur households and communities to strengthen food production and adopt climate-smart farming methods.

“The predictions of the El Niño-induced drought for the 2026/2027 season must ignite in us all, household by household, greater determination and focus to increase the adoption of Pfumvudza/Intwasa Programme, among other agriculture initiatives and projects,” said President Mnangagwa.

“Let us work hard on our God-given land so that we produce what we eat and we guarantee national food security and sovereignty.”

Government is targeting one million hectares under the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme this season as part of efforts to strengthen household food security under increasingly unpredictable climatic conditions.

The conservation agriculture programme promotes moisture retention, mulching and efficient use of inputs, which are critical during seasons characterised by erratic or below-normal rainfall.

Efforts are also being intensified to promote water harvesting, soil conservation and efficient water use.

Government is targeting strategic grain reserves of 450 000 tonnes over successive seasons, supported by the country’s new artificial intelligence-powered silos.

Livestock remains another major area of concern should drought conditions materialise.

Zimbabwe lost more than one million cattle during the devastating 1991/1992 El Niño drought, while 44 766 cattle deaths were recorded during the 2023/2024 drought.

Farmers are being encouraged to prepare ahead of the dry season by conserving grass, baling hay, retaining maize stover and wheat straw and establishing fodder reserves before grazing lands deteriorate.

Zimbabwe is targeting the production of seven million hay bales while also promoting resilient and locally adapted cattle breeds such as Mashona, Boran, Tuli and Nguni.

Water security interventions are also being accelerated, particularly in livestock-producing communities vulnerable to prolonged dry spells.

Government has installed 240 solar-powered boreholes at dip tanks across the country to provide reliable water for livestock.

Zimbabwe has approximately 4 211 dip tanks serving an estimated 5,7 million cattle, making the facilities critical centres for animal health, disease surveillance, vaccination and livestock identification.

The Rural Infrastructure Development Agency (RIDA) has also indicated that it will rehabilitate 1 300 boreholes in Matabeleland South as part of efforts to cushion communities and livestock against the potential effects of drought.

Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development Permanent Secretary Professor Obert Jiri has urged farmers to begin preparations while conditions remain dry.

“The holing out must be done now, when it’s dry, ahead of the start of the rain season. Farmers must also invest in gathering mulch at this stage,” he said.

Mulching helps retain soil moisture, suppress weeds and improve soil health — benefits that become increasingly important when rainfall is scarce or poorly distributed.

Matopo Research Institute research officer Ms Obey Daga said farmers could also consider alternative fodder crops such as Chinese grass, also known as Juncao.

She said the fast-growing fodder crop can be harvested within eight weeks of establishment and has the potential to provide substantial quantities of livestock feed.

“It can be harvested at least four times during the rainy season, giving a minimum of 300 tonnes fresh matter per hectare. It tillers very vigorously such that you can have an average of 15 tillers in six weeks,” she said.

Ms Daga said the grass also has relatively high protein levels and can be processed into silage due to its high brix content.

With the regional forecast pointing towards a potentially challenging summer, experts say the coming weeks will be crucial for farmers, livestock producers and communities to prepare.

The difference between another devastating drought and a manageable climate shock, they warn, could depend largely on how early the country acts.