Internal cracks threaten APC’s 2027 electoral fortunes

From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja

On the surface, the All Progressives Congress (APC) appears battle-ready for next year’s general election in several dimensions. The presidential, legislative and governorship election campaigns are progressing very well, in accordance with the schedule since the kick-off of the exercise in Kaduna State a few weeks ago.

Apart from various support groups and other organs of the ruling party functioning optimally in actively mobilising support and potential votes across the country for the APC, Nigerians have equally adjusted to the reality of President Bola Tinubu’s selected appearances at campaign rallies.

More importantly, there have been encouraging responses and promises from the party’s foot soldiers and representatives about making inroads among Nigerians at the grassroots, gradually accepting the party and its message of hope.

Interestingly, while the opposition parties and their candidates are still struggling with scarcity of campaign funds to physically and indirectly reach out to the millions of the electorate, crippling, distracting and destabilising litigations, escalating senseless attacks on their campaign convoys by political thugs, among other teething and debilitating hurdles, the ruling party’s near-perfect build-up to next year’s elections has already shifted into speed gear.

However, beyond the surface of the rewarding glorious mileage the ruling APC has effectively covered, there habe been rumblings, an impactful high-capacity volcano threatening to erupt within the party ahead of the 2027 polls, particularly the presidential election.

The snowstorms and drums of warfare among the ruling party’s leaders and political godfathers seem to be persistently sounding, treacherously very loud, in many states across the country.

The cacophony of the windstorm from Benue, Plateau, Osun, Anambra and other troubled state chapters of the party across the country has widened the cracks within the party, exposing and making its electoral fortunes next year very vulnerable.

In other states like Katsina, Yobe, Kaduna, Kebbi and some parts of the northern region, the hostile attitude of angry masses towards the ruling party certainly leave much to be desired in confirming that many Nigerians are, perhaps, dissatisfied and unimpressed with the performance of the APC since taking over the mantle of leadership of the country more than a decade ago.

The reality on the ground, as the APC intensifies campaigns towards the 2027 general election, has confirmed the fact that stakeholders of the ruling party are fighting multiple battles at several fronts to regain the confidence and trust of the Nigerian electorate and to paper over the cracks posing lethal electoral consequences on the party.

The precarious situation of APC in many states has manifested in the worrisome crises the party’s major stakeholders, chieftains, leaders and members are currently enmeshed in as a result of the spillover bile and bitterness resulting from its primary elections, the antagonisms and parallel composition of the presidential and state campaign councils.

The confusion created by the composition of APC PCC members in some states like Osun, Benue, Anambra and Rivers, particularly over who dominates and populates the campaign council between legacy party members and the political allies of the governors identifying with the arrangement to collapse the opposition party’s structure, is currently ravaging the ruling party ahead of the polls.

Other factors militating against the possibility of the ruling party approaching next year’s elections as a united family have equally manifested in anti-party activities by certain elements within the party, identifying, openly and secretly, with the Rainbow Coalition arrangement and, ultimately more disturbing, the aggrieved ruling party members secretly sponsoring candidates in opposition parties against APC candidates.

And more curious was the conspiracy theory of alignments involving key stakeholders responsible for driving the re-election of President Tinubu in next year’s poll for the litigated Imo West senatorial district ticket between the state governor, Hope Uzodimma, and his predecessor, Rochas Okorocha.

Names like the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, the President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, the former APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and, surprisingly, the Director-General of the APC PCC, Senator Abdul’Azeez Yari, have cropped up as being directly or indirectly involved in the supposed alignment to whittle down the domineering powers of the Imo governor in the race to decide the leader of the yet-to-be-constituted 11th National Assembly.

But the more worrisome situation could be the alleged cold war among some members of the national leadership, the APC National Working Committee (NWC), and State leaders of the party in the lingering rifts over the choice of nominated candidates, which have widened the cracks in the party ahead of the polls.

On a subtle level, some nihilists have referred to the secret battle among certain forces at the presidency, over who takes charge of proceedings while Mr President struggles with his fragile health and/or State matters, as another source of mild challenge ahead of the re-election of President Tinubu next year.

Using Benue State as the first point of reference, the festering rift and brutal supremacy contest among major political gladiators like the governor, Hyacinth Alia, and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, with their loyalists, have gotten to the breaking point of posing a serious threat to the re-election of President Tinubu, Benue federal and State lawmakers, and even the governor himself on the platform of the ruling party during next year’s general elections.

The crisis, which has lingered for a long time now, came to the head recently during the nomination of candidates for federal and State legislatures, resulting in major screaming headlines like Akume’s loyalists reject inclusion in Alia’s campaign council, and or Alia, Akume’s rift threatens re-election of Benue federal lawmakers, among many other satanic ones.

According to many political watchers, at the heart of the dispute in the Benue State APC chapter was the control of party structures and, by extension, the power to determine who nominates candidates for elective offices, a critical factor in Nigeria’s political system, where governors wield significant influence over party tickets at the state level.

In reality, the rift has not only effectively split the party’s structure in the state but equally triggered and forced elected political officials, Benue’s 14 federal lawmakers, to align and realign in support of the gladiators.

From all indications, Akume seems to be having the upper hand, because only one, Solomon Wombo, out of 11 House of Representatives members and three Senators in the State, is with Alia, while the SGF has two senators, and the remaining 10 Reps members, including the Deputy Spokesman of the lower chamber, Philip Agbnese, who has since defected to the Labour Party.

However, as efforts to salvage the ugly situation in Benue appear to have made little headway despite interventions from top federal officials, regardless of who finally won the battle in the State’s APC chapter, it might certainly result in a case of the grass suffering, as it threatens the electoral fortunes of President Tinubu, with high chances of the opposition snatching the victory, especially as there is no possibility of them closing ranks before the elections.

Instead of reconciliation, the situation even got worse recently when Benue Strategic Alliance for Tinubu 2027, a political mobilisation platform associated with Akume, rejected their inclusion in the about 500-man campaign council to drive President Tinubu and Governor Alia’s re-election next year.

However, the Benue State supremacy fracas, according to pundits, is a child’s play compared to the terrifying cold war in Plateau State, allegedly between the governor, Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang and the APC National Chairman, Prof Nentawe Yilwatda, over the same controversial issue of nomination of legislative candidates in the State.

A source who confided in the Daily Sun that the governor, by way of protesting the greedy decision of the party’s national chairman to hijack the nomination of the legislative candidates, had allegedly sponsored his political allies as candidates in the opposition parties.

The source further claimed that, out of frustration with the winner-takes-all attitude of the party’s chairman, the helpless governor is allegedly identifying secretly with the Rainbow Coalition in the State in desperation to deliver his political allies

“At the heat of the battle, the governor even sought the intervention of the First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, to the decision of the party’s chairman to hijack the nomination of candidates, but the intervention could not yield much positive results.

“It was out of frustration that the governor secretly sponsored his political allies to pick tickets in the opposition parties, resulting in his alleged secret identification with the Rainbow Coalition in the State to deliver them,” the source claimed.

However, pouring ice-cold water on the acclaimed rift, Abimbola Tooki, the Special Adviser on Media and Information Strategy to the APC chairman, told the Daily Sun that there is no iota of truth in it, warning that political differences are addressed through established party structures and internal dialogue, not through speculation or sensational narratives.

He, however, explained that in line with the arrangement, 40 per cent of the positions were allocated to the legacy APC bloc, while 60 per cent went to the governor and his group.

According to him, “The claims are completely unfounded and do not reflect the reality of the relationship between the governor and the National Chairman. There is no cold war, disagreement or breakdown in communication between the governor and the National Chairman over the nomination of candidates for the 2027 elections.”

“For the avoidance of doubt, the distribution of elective positions was arrived at through a mutual understanding and gentleman’s agreement between the legacy members of the APC and the governor’s group, comprising members who joined the party from the PDP.

“Under that arrangement, 40 per cent of the positions were allocated to the legacy APC bloc, while 60 per cent went to the governor and his group. This was a deliberate and inclusive political arrangement designed to accommodate the interests of all stakeholders, promote fairness and strengthen party unity. There was no imposition by any individual, nor was it a unilateral decision by the National Chairman.

“It was a collective understanding reached in the overall interest of the party, and all parties have respected the terms of that agreement. It is therefore misleading to suggest that the governor is unhappy with the arrangement or that he has resorted to secretly identifying with the Rainbow Coalition to undermine the APC or advance the electoral fortunes of candidates from other political parties,” he told the Daily Sun.

Dismissing the speculations further, the SA noted that: “The governor remains an important stakeholder in the APC, and there is no basis for suggesting that he is working against the party. Political differences, where they arise, are addressed through established party structures and internal dialogue, not through speculation or sensational narratives.”

“Our overriding concern is to maintain a united and formidable APC in Plateau State, consolidate the gains of the party and work collectively towards victory at all levels in the 2027 elections. The relationship between the governor and the party leadership should not be defined by rumours, conjecture or attempts to manufacture a crisis where none exists.

“For emphasis, there is no cold war. There is an understanding, there is an agreement, and there is a shared commitment to the success of the APC,” he defended.

But, beyond the supremacy war among the governors and the godfathers of the party in the States, the increasing destruction of billboards and posters belonging to the candidates of the ruling party, the APC, by some hostile political thugs in some states, has equally constituted another major source of concern to the party’s leadership, chieftains and members.

Particularly in the northern part of the country, instances abound where angry persons chanting hostile songs and making inhospitable and insensitive rejection remarks have equally become another albatross to the ruling party’s electoral fortunes.

Many political watchers seem to be in sync that the multiple cracks within the ruling party ahead of next year’s general elections pose grave danger and signal trouble for the APC.

However, from all indications, the threats enumerated above obviously seem to be mild compared to the intriguing conspiracy theory over the recent judgment on the contentious Imo West senatorial candidate ticket of the ruling party between Governor Uzodimma and Okorocha.

In what looked like a witch crying at night and a child dying in the morning, the countenance and physical disposition of political figures Wike, Yari, Akpabio, Ganduje, among others, before and shortly after the judgment, confirmed that there is more to the senatorial ticket.

And miffed by the ugly development, APC stakeholders have warned President Tinubu on the possibility of losing in the South East in next year’s presidential election should he continue to watch the escalating power play among the gladiators.

The stakeholders under the auspices of Renewed Hope Foot Soldiers for Tinubu, while expressing deep concerns over the Federal High Court’s judgment recognising Okorocha as the duly elected Imo West APC candidate, cautioned that it could deepen political tensions in the South East and complicate efforts to sustain unity within the party ahead of the 2027 elections.

The statement by Gbenga Owojori, National President of the group, warned that: “The dispute over the Imo West senatorial ticket has consequences beyond the constituency. It has altered the political calculations surrounding the Senate presidency and raised concern that a leading South East contender could be shut out of the contest before the next Senate is constituted.”

“The President needs a united party and the confidence of political allies across the country. If the South East believes its support is welcome only when votes are needed, but its candidates are obstructed when power is being shared, the consequences could extend well beyond Imo State.”

Although Wike has tried to absolve himself of any complicity in the judgment by tactically denying playing any role in the nullification, his defence will not convince many political watchers that have been following the trend of political battle ragging between them in the build-up to next year’s polls.

In what many regarded as response with tongue in cheek, Wike had recently noted: “I didn’t go to court; I am not from APC. People are involving me because on the eve of that judgment he had openly warned his people that there is no Rainbow Coalition; ‘if I see you, I will collect the vehicle. So, when the judgment came, they said it was me. How could it have been me?”

“Your business is to make sure Mr President wins elections. At the National Assembly level, so many factors come in, including zoning… I owe no apologies that Okorocha is my friend; after all, he has friends in Rivers State that are my political enemies; will I go and kill them? No! If Uzodimma is a strong man, he shouldn’t be afraid. You are strong; whatever you see, you take!” Wike quipped.

Many Nigerians, particularly the leaders, chieftains, and members of the ruling party, are waiting with bated breath to see how the APC wriggles out of the quagmire it currently finds itself in and still overcomes the obvious threats they pose on its electoral fortunes.

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